The Power of Prediction

Last week I wrote about the power of hope, and specifically about my secret hope for perfectly predicting the winners of all sixty-three games in the NCAA men's basketball tournament.  As I write this column on Friday morning, there have been 52 games played in the tournament so far.  I have correctly predicted the winners of 32 of those games.  My wife, Holly, has correctly predicted 36 of the winners--a fact that she does not have any hesitancy sharing with me on a regular basis.  And as if it's not painful enough to have her playfully gloat about how far ahead of me she is in our pool, she often concludes her gloating with this question:  “Didn't you do your research on the teams before you made your picks, sweetheart?”  Based on her research she correctly picked Ohio to make the second round and Lehigh to upset Duke.  I would gladly share with you her research sources and methods, but she refuses to divulge this top secret information with me! Attempting to predict the future behavior of other people is always challenging.  This is true not just in college basketball, but in all aspects of life.  Even though we may be aware of how challenging it is to predict the future behavior of others, it's still what we do.    This is nothing more than harmless fun when it comes to March Madness, but when it comes to the rest of our lives, and especially the important relationships in our lives, the way in which we predict the future behavior of others can have very important consequences.

Take parenting for example.  Parents are predicting their children's futures all the time, whether they are consciously aware of this or not.  Think of the different impact these two predictive statements would have on a child:  “I know you are struggling right now, but I just know that you will figure this out,” and, “I can't believe you are struggling again.  Sometimes I wonder if you are ever going to get your act together.”  Two very different predictions that create two very different effects on a child, whether that child is five years old or forty years old.  I remember someone in their fifties once telling me, “As I was growing up I felt like my father was always telling me in one way or another that I wouldn't amount to much.  I spent my twenties proving to him that he was right.  But then I got help and turned my life around and have been proving him wrong ever since.”

Predicting the behaviors of others can also be harmful in our relationships with our a spouse, friend, or other significant adult in our life.    We have all probably been guilty of not sharing a new idea for positive growth and change with a spouse, friend, or colleague because we just “know” they will reject our idea.  In fact when two people are fighting, they will often say something passive aggressive like, “I was going to do something really nice for you, but I decided against it because I knew you wouldn't appreciate it!”  All relationships form patterns over time.  If we predict that these relational patterns are incapable of changing, we will usually be right.  However, if we predict that these relational patterns are capable of changing and growing, and if we are willing to make the commitment and effort to do our part in helping the change and growth occur, we will usually be right as well!

So what future predictions (conscious or subconscious) do you have for yourself and those you love right now?   Are those predictions hopeful and life-giving, or are they negative and life-draining?  Be honest.  If your predictions are hopeful and life-giving, good for you--and good for the people you love!  If your predictions are negative and life-draining, then I encourage you seek out the help of a friend, a counselor, a spiritual leader and/or a faith community to help you turn things around.  Doing so will be a wonderful gift for you and the people you love!

When it comes to predicting the winners of a basketball game, our predictions have absolutely no influence on the outcome of the game.  However, the predictions we make for ourselves and those we love, will have great influence on what comes to pass--in fact they make all the difference.  That's my prediction and I'm standing by it!

Hope Against All Odds

Every year I fill out my NCAA basketball tournament brackets in hopes that I will win one of the friendly pools in which I participate.  I am not alone in this.  Millions of people are doing the same thing all across the country this week.  Each of us are trying to predict the winner of 63 different games that will be played over the next two and a half weeks.  While I do hope that my bracket will be a winner, I have another secret hope as well.  Each year I have this secret hope that maybe I will be the one person that will predict all 63 games of the tournament correctly.   No one ever accused hope of being rational.  In this case, the power of my hope is much greater than the power of rationality. Do you know what the odds are of picking all 63 games correctly in the NCAA basketball tournament?  There are two teams in each of the 63 games, and therefore two different possible outcomes for each of those games.  This means the odds of choosing all 63 games correctly are 1 in 2 ^ 63 (2 to the 63rd power).  This computes to a rather large number!  To be exact, the odds of picking all 63 games correctly are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808.  That's right--one in nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty-three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy-two trillion, thirty-six billion, eight hundred and fifty-four million, seven hundred and seventy-five thousand, eight hundred and eight.

The fact that I know these odds and still hope this will be the year that I fill out a perfect bracket speaks to me of the irrepressible power of hope.  In fact, I believe this is in large part what people love about the NCAA college basketball tournament.  There is always the irrational hope that a weaker, lower seeded team will “against all odds” upset a much higher seeded, heavily favored team and win the tournament.  Will this be the year that for the first time ever a sixteenth seeded team upsets a number one seeded team?  And don't we all love to watch a player attempt a game winning shot from half court just as time is expiring on the clock?  For a moment, time seems to pause, as everyone waits to see if, against all odds, the impossible looking shot just might go in.  We stay tuned hoping for the unexpected to happen and for one shining moment we take great delight when the unexpected does occur.

I believe we find such joy in the unexpected coming to pass because it inspires us to keep hoping in our own lives, even when doing so seems irrational.  The power of hope is the spirit that fuels all great endeavors.  The power of hope is what inspires mere mortals to overcome incredible odds.  Hope is what every new relationship, every new endeavor, and every new possibility possesses in abundance.  Hope is what every relationship or endeavor that seems impossible needs most to grow.  Hope is probably then the greatest gift we can give to one another.

Perhaps there is a particular challenge in your life right now about which you are  feeling discouraged.  Is there still a tiny spark of hope though that things can be different, that you can overcome the challenge and create the outcome you desire?  If so, blow on that spark.  Believe in that spark.  Ask for support from others and let them blow on that spark with you.    Ask for help from the One who is the Source of all hope.  Go ahead and take the half court shot. Go ahead and believe you can win, in spite of what the “experts” or your critics might say.  Most importantly, be sure to show up and play your best game you can play.

A Whole New Light

This weekend we will all be turning our clocks ahead one hour. When this happens, it is not unusual to hear someone say, "I love getting an extra hour of daylight!" This, of course, is not literally true. Turning our clocks ahead one hour does not lengthen the amount of sunlight in a day. For example, the amount of daylight for this Sunday here in Milwaukee, Wisconsin will be 11 hours 43 minutes and 57 seconds. Changing our clocks will not alter that fact. Changing our clocks does, however, alter our frame of reference, and the new frame of reference alters our experience of the daylight. Have you ever had the experience where you shift your frame of reference on an issue, a problem, or a challenge that you are facing and suddenly a resolution becomes clear that had not been clear before? I remember one time I was helping a family in the midst of conflict and they turned to me and said, "Okay, this is where we need you to be the referee." I thought for a moment, and responded, "No, I don't think you need a referee right now, I think you need a coach." When they asked me what I meant I explained that a referee works with two people or teams that are opponents or adversaries, as in a boxing match or a basketball game. Saying that I thought then needed a coach meant that I saw them not as opponents, but as all being on the same team, and the role of a coach was to help the team play at a higher level. Offering them this shift of reference simply helped to remember what they already knew, but in the midst of their current conflict they had forgotten.

Henry Ford knew something about the importance of our frame of reference when he said, "Wether you think you can, or whether you think you can't, you are right." I remember going to a business conference recently and saying to a colleague as we were going to the meeting, "I can't imagine anything good is going to happen here today." Knowing me well, he replied with a smile, "With that attitude, I'm sure that will be true for you." He was right and I was grateful for the reminder that we do not so much see the world as it is, but rather we tend to see the world as we are. With my colleague's help I was able to shift my frame of reference and subsequently benefit from some good moments in the conference.

Is there a conflict or challenge in your life that might benefit from shifting your frame of reference? Perhaps you are in conflict with someone in your life and you have frame the conflict as primarily their fault, and therefore nothing is going to change until they make things right. Staying stuck in this frame of reference will most likely not allow you to see your part of the conflict, and more importantly will probably not allow you to see the things you can do right now to begin working toward resolving the conflict.

I wish that changing our frame of reference in the midst of a challenge or a conflict was as easy as changing our clocks. It clearly is not. We may need help from a wise friend or confidant to help us make that shift in perspective. And while changing our clocks does not actually create more light in the day, we do in fact have a saying that often goes along with changing our frame of reference in regards to a challenge or conflict. When we make this shift in our frame of reference, we often say, "Suddenly, I saw the situation in a whole new light." So as we all reset our clocks this weekend, it might be a good time to think of what else might need some resetting in our lives right now. Here's to seeing things in a whole new light.

Of Storms and Stories

My wife and I have just spent five wonderful days in Baton Rouge, LA sharing our Living Compass wellness program with the people of St. Luke's Episcopal Church and School.  It was our first visit to this community, and hopefully it will not be our last.  Southern hospitality is not a cliche for these folks.  They embody the essence of a warm welcome and genuine conversation.   And because Living Compass is all about creating genuine conversations, we were a perfect fit for each other. The first few days we were together we heard lots of stories about storms.  The kind of storms that have names.  We heard first hand about how hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Gustav (2008) affected peoples' lives.  We even heard stories about hurricane Betsy (1965).  We were inspired by stories of people reaching out to help each other heal and recover from the terrible, heartbreaking losses created by these storms.  As horrifying as these storms were, they also revealed the genuine warmth of character and deep hospitality that people in Louisiana share with one another.

After a few days, and as we all got to know each other a little better, our conversations turned to other types of storms that people had experienced.  These storms were not of the meteorological kind, but were the kinds of storms that are inevitably part of everyone's life.  These storms included job losses, the death of a child, the end of a marriage, a diagnosis of cancer, struggles with depression, and the normal storms that can arise when there is transition in the life of a congregation.   I suppose these storms could also have been given names and dates as well--Cancer (2005), or Loss of a Loved One (2007).  Some of the effects of the storms remained evident in the present, as people shared their stories with us.

The common theme, between the stories of these storms of nature and these storms of life, is the universal need we have to tell the stories of both what we have been through and what we were going through today.  We need to tell these stories to work though the effects of what we have experienced.  We need to tell these stories so that we can connect with each other in ways that are healing.   And it is in the telling of these stories, these narratives of our lives,  that we both find and create meaning.

We are story telling people.  When we meet one another for the first time, we can't help but want to share our stories with one another.  There is a healing nature to the genuine connection of heart and soul we experience when we share our stories with another, especially the stories of the storms we have been through in our lives.  I am grateful for the wonderful story tellers we shared time with during the last five days in wonderful Baton Rouge because they reminded me once again of the life-giving power of story filled conversations.

Shape Up for Lent!

Every Tuesday I lead both a wellness program and a worship service at St. John's on the Lake, a retirement community here in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  With today being Ash Wednesday, I focussed our wellness discussion at the retirement community yesterday on the season of Lent.  I gave some of the history of Lent and reminded everyone that this season is a time for us to be more reflective and intentional in regards to our spiritual life.  It is a time for us to give something up, and/or to take something one, such as a spiritual discipline.  In retrospect, I got a little long winded in my remarks.  When I was finished, a ninety-two year old woman raised her hand.  I asked Jean what was on her mind.  She said, kindly, but wisely, “All that talk about Lent sounds pretty fancy.  But if you ask me, Lent can be summed up in two words.”  Of course, the group of twenty all wanted to know what those two words were.   Jean then offered a much better description of the essence of Lent than the long winded explanation I had just given, but saying that Lent is simply a time to, “Shape up!”   When we talk about getting in shape we are usually referring to the physical dimension of our wellness.  Starting or expanding an exercise program, or changing our eating habits will help us get in better shape.  When my ninety-two year old friend Jean summed up Lent as “shape up” I don't think she was thinking about a person's physical wellness, as important as that may be.  Jean was talking about our spiritual wellness.  And as the rest of the group joined in our discussion yesterday, the discussion expanded to talking about Lent as a time to shape up our emotional wellness (a time to “fast” from criticism, one person suggested) and our relational wellness (a suggestion was made to make amends with those with whom we are in conflict).

  Shape up!  This is what Lent invites us to do.  Lent offers us the chance to shape up our spiritual, emotional and relational wellness.  Perhaps you find yourself carrying a little extra emotional weight these days?  What a great time work through that and to shape up.  Have you lost some flexibility and become a bit rigid in an important relationship in your life?  It might be time to do some stretching exercises and in the process,  shape up.  Are you feeling a little spiritually week and sluggish right now?  It might be time to try some new exercises, some new routines, to strengthen your soul and in the process shape up.

  Your local congregation offers plenty of opportunities to get yourself in shape this time of year.  As my pastor, the Rev. Gary Manning explained so well this past Sunday, all these extra offering are not intended to be one more thing for you to feel guilty about not doing, but just the opposite--they are offered as a source of rest, refreshment, and nourishment for your spiritual, emotional, and relational well-being.  And know that whatever shape you currently find yourself in, you are welcome just as you are.  All you need to bring is an open heart, an open soul, and a genuine desire to.........shape up.